Arkansas Storm Team Weather Blog: 2024 Summer Outlook

Meteorological Summer begins on June 1st, and Astronomical Summer on June 20th.

The last 2 summers in Arkansas have featured many triple-digit days and temperatures much higher than normal. The summers of 2022 and 2023 both ended up being in the top 10 hottest on record!

Is this summer going to bring record heat again or will we finally see temperatures a little closer to normal?

Long-range forecasting is extremely difficult any time of year, but during the summer it's even harder. It's more challenging because there are very few atmospheric forcings that affect Arkansas' weather in the summer. In the winter the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a substantial impact on our weather. ENSO is the main information I used to make my 2023-2024 winter outlook.

ENSO is an ocean current in the Pacific and is expected to transition into its cold phase this summer. The cold phase is known as La Nina.

The National Hurricane Center said La Nina would likely lead to a more active Atlantic Hurricane season.

If the La Nina has an impact on hurricane season, then it might have some impact on our summer weather here in Arkansas.

I went back and looked at weather data from all the years since 1950 that we were experiencing a La Nina. Of those 74 years, 16 of them were years when ENSO was in its La Nina phase.

As I expected, there is very little correlation from the data.

The average temperature for La Nina summers shows no trend at all. Little Rock experienced 8 summers with below-average temperatures and 8 summers with above-average temperatures.

You can see from the graph above that most of the below-average summers were in the 1950s and 1970s and most of the above-average summers were in the 2000s. This is likely caused by the warming that the earth has experienced in the last 60 years, and not La Nina.

There is a slight correlation in the precipitation data. Little Rock saw above-average rainfall during 10 of the 16 La Nina summers.

Using all this information, this summer will likely feature slightly above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation.

Again, these long-range forecasts are difficult, and long-range summer forecasts are even harder. Either way... it's Arkansas... so it will feel very hot and very humid all summer long!

Thank you for trusting the Arkansas Storm Team for all your weather information!

If you have a weather topic that you would like to learn about, email me at alibby@kark.com

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