Arkansas Storm Team Weather Blog: Chance of a white Christmas?

Written By ApurbaDa December 14, 2023 Add Comment

Christmas is less than two weeks away and many are wondering if we will see any snow!

Before I talk about this year's forecast, I want to cover how common a white Christmas is in Arkansas and across the country.

According to the National Weather Service, there needs to be at least 1" of snow falling or already on the ground for a Christmas to be considered white.

As you'd expect, locations in the northern United States have the highest chance for a white Christmas. There are locations in Maine, Minnesota, and the Rocky Mountains that have a white Christmas nearly every year!

For most of Arkansas, the chance of a white Christmas is less than 10%, but the higher elevations in the Boston Mountain have an 11 to 25% chance.

That is the chance for at least 1" of snow, I think most of us in Arkansas would be happy with a trace or just seeing snowflakes falling from the sky.

The likelihood of at least a trace of snow is a little better!

Below is the chance for a white Christmas and the chance for a trace of snow for several cities across Arkansas.

The percent chance is based on the 100+ years of data from these cities. It's no surprise that locations like Fayetteville and Jonesboro have a much better chance for a white Christmas than Pine Bluff and El Dorado.

What about this year?

Christmas is still over a week away so minor changes will occur to the forecast. But, the weather pattern that we will be in does not support snow. The temperature outlook for December 22nd through the 28th is forecasting all of Arkansas and most of the United States to have above-average temperatures.