AST Weather Blog: Plume of Saharan dust to suppress tropical activity for next few days
It has been a rather active start to the 2024 hurricane season. But for the time being, there is no concern of development in the Atlantic Basin.
This is mostly thanks to a large plume of Saharan Dust and accompanied dry air that is working its way across the Atlantic Ocean. So how in the world does this happen?
This is a pattern that is common during June and July. Storms fire up over Central and Northern Africa along the ITCZ, or Intertropical Convergence Zone. When those storms die off, they release large blasts of cooler, drier air. That air spreads north across the Saharan Desert, lofting trillions of particles of dust into the air.
As the dust gets lifted, it hitches a ride across the Atlantic Ocean via the trade winds. This is the same atmospheric current that steers tropical systems. When the current is diluted with this dry, dusty air; tropical systems struggle to develop.
That said, this reprieve will not stick around through the rest of the season. We could only wish that were the case. The latest seasonal forecast from Colorado State University continues to call for a hyperactive season with 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes.
Unfortunately, this pattern will likely come to an end in the coming weeks, just in time for the most active part of the hurricane season: August and September.
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