AST Weather Blog: Drought likely to worsen, enhancing wildfire danger and warmer temps
The past several weeks have been incredibly dry. Both August and September fell short of its average rainfall by over an inch. So far in October, we haven't seen a drop.
To underline just how dry we are, nearly all the rain Little Rock has seen in recent weeks was associated with a tropical system. Even in those cases, it wasn't much. The remnants of Hurricane Francine brought 1.33 inches over the course of 5 days. Then Helene brought a whopping 0.06 inches on September 27th.
This has brought a rapid onset of drought conditions across the state, enhancing the threat of wildfire. Most counties have issued their own burn bans, prohibiting any brush fires or bonfires until further notice.
At the moment, there is no rain in the forecast. As you'd imagine, this is only expected to make things worse. A new drought monitor will be released tomorrow, and no improvements are expected. Meanwhile, a warming trend is in store for next week.
Often when we have significant drought conditions in place, we see a much greater diurnal temperature variation. This is especially true when there is low humidity. At night, temperatures get cooler. Then during the day, temperatures get much warmer.
That said, our upcoming warming trend could trend a bit warmer in the afternoons than what model guidance suggests, which is still well above our average of mid-70s. This will be the case for the next 8 to 10 days, and perhaps even beyond that.
On average the fall is generally the driest time of the year. Rainfall averages typically begin to increase again through November and the following winter months.
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