Arkansas Storm Team Weather Blog: Tracking an icy winter storm
LITTLE ROCK, Ark. - We have been watching the potential for an ice event for the past several days. What looked to be a possible ice storm now looks likely for parts of Arkansas.
Ingredients necessary for a significant icing event are in place and it looks like most of Arkansas will be coated in a glaze of ice at some point this week. For an ice storm, we need cold air at the surface with warmer air aloft and precipitation.
This is exactly what's going to happen. A large and cold area of high pressure will park itself to our north, this will keep a continuous flow of cold air moving into Arkansas. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be flowing in from the south and will ride up and over the more dense cold air at the surface.
This will cause widespread freezing rain (ice) and sleet across much of Arkansas. Very little to no snow is expected.
The main time when freezing rain/sleet will accumulate is between Monday evening and Wednesday morning. It won't fall as a constant precipitation, there will be times when it is lighter and even stops. Below is the latest timing. Green = Rain, Pink = freezing rain/sleet, and Blue = Snow.
Temperatures are everything during an event like this. A one-degree temperature drop can change harmless rain to dangerous freezing rain, and if temperatures drop even colder, then freezing rain will change to sleet. It looks like southern Arkansas will be warm enough for all rain. A large portion of central Arkansas will see the best chance for freezing rain. Northern Arkansas will be cold enough to change that freezing rain into ice pellets (sleet).
For this storm, we will mainly focus on freezing rain and not sleet. This is because freezing rain can cause the most impact. Remember, freezing rain causes everything to be covered in a glaze of ice and sleet falls as little round balls of ice.
Sleet is still impactful and will cause slick roads, but it's not as impactful as freezing rain.
Forecasting ice amounts is extremely difficult, but right now it looks like the highest potential for significant accumulation will be over central and east-central Arkansas. Again, ice amounts are extremely hard to predict so this will change.
For this icing event, it looks like impacts COULD stay minimal. Ice accumulations look like they will stay low enough so we won't see widespread power outages. Also, temperatures will be warm enough to allow ARDOT to treat the busiest roads will salt and chemicals.
With ice-covered roads, it is almost impossible to drive. Even with a four-wheel drive car. Check back in with us over the coming days for updates, because there will be changes.
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